What if, 2005 NHL Entry Draft Edition
5.29.2008
I'm going to oversimplify situations here. Let's flashback to the 2005 NHL Entry Draft. What if the Anaheim Ducks had the first overall pick? Certainly, they would have selected Sidney Crosby, making the team far and away the league favorites for years to come.
But what would've happened to Pittsburgh? They selected Fleury in 2003. So, they probably would not have gone after Price. Would they have selected Bobby Ryan? Maybe. Maybe not. I think they would've taken Jack Johnson. They could've used help on d and their second pick in that draft was a d-man. It wouldn't have thrown off the rest of the draft too much though. The only way I see this turning out differently is if the Penguins had the foresight to dig a little deeper and draft Kopitar at center.
Anyway, how much would that have sucked for the Penguins? Not as much as at initial glance. Sure, not getting Crosby would've been an immediate setback to them and the NHL would pour their focus on the Ducks and not the Pens. Plus, the Flyers might be in the Stanley Cup right now had that happened. So, those things would've been harsh.
But what good would've come of it? Let's assume they chose Johnson. This year, he's making $0.85 mil. He's an RFA next year but only has 79 games at the NHL level under his belt. So, he's probably due for a decent raise but nothing in the realm of Crosby. Maybe he'll get a nice short term contract to see how he continues to develop, something like 3 years, $2.5 mil. That's $6.5 mil under what Crosby's making.
Johnson's presence and potential would allow the Pens to cut ties with a high priced vet, like Sydor or Gill, cutting an extra $2.1-$2.5 mil out of their budget. Now, you have about $9 mil more a year to work with.
The Pens have something like 20 UFAs and RFAs after this season and 11 after the following. That's insane, especially when you consider that Malkin and Fleury are among those ranks. Without Crosby, the Pens would've been more proactive about signing Malkin to a long-term deal and could've gotten him at a cheaper price. Now, he'll go for league maximum.
All of that extra money, plus the Pens extra cap space, would've allowed them to bring back all of their key players and, if necessary, maybe even have room for an affordable free agent with high potential, if necessary.
Instead, the Penguins will find themselves tight up against the cap in the next few years, and they'll be forced to make a tough decision: (I'm borrowing this description but I forget where I read it so I don't have a reference, sorry) Do they go the Tampa Bay route and spend most of their salary on a few key players or do they cut ties with the top guys in order to have balance and depth?
Either way, it's a rough spot that Pittsburgh is in and, in some way, it's a shame for them that they ever got Crosby.
But what would've happened to Pittsburgh? They selected Fleury in 2003. So, they probably would not have gone after Price. Would they have selected Bobby Ryan? Maybe. Maybe not. I think they would've taken Jack Johnson. They could've used help on d and their second pick in that draft was a d-man. It wouldn't have thrown off the rest of the draft too much though. The only way I see this turning out differently is if the Penguins had the foresight to dig a little deeper and draft Kopitar at center.
Anyway, how much would that have sucked for the Penguins? Not as much as at initial glance. Sure, not getting Crosby would've been an immediate setback to them and the NHL would pour their focus on the Ducks and not the Pens. Plus, the Flyers might be in the Stanley Cup right now had that happened. So, those things would've been harsh.
But what good would've come of it? Let's assume they chose Johnson. This year, he's making $0.85 mil. He's an RFA next year but only has 79 games at the NHL level under his belt. So, he's probably due for a decent raise but nothing in the realm of Crosby. Maybe he'll get a nice short term contract to see how he continues to develop, something like 3 years, $2.5 mil. That's $6.5 mil under what Crosby's making.
Johnson's presence and potential would allow the Pens to cut ties with a high priced vet, like Sydor or Gill, cutting an extra $2.1-$2.5 mil out of their budget. Now, you have about $9 mil more a year to work with.
The Pens have something like 20 UFAs and RFAs after this season and 11 after the following. That's insane, especially when you consider that Malkin and Fleury are among those ranks. Without Crosby, the Pens would've been more proactive about signing Malkin to a long-term deal and could've gotten him at a cheaper price. Now, he'll go for league maximum.
All of that extra money, plus the Pens extra cap space, would've allowed them to bring back all of their key players and, if necessary, maybe even have room for an affordable free agent with high potential, if necessary.
Instead, the Penguins will find themselves tight up against the cap in the next few years, and they'll be forced to make a tough decision: (I'm borrowing this description but I forget where I read it so I don't have a reference, sorry) Do they go the Tampa Bay route and spend most of their salary on a few key players or do they cut ties with the top guys in order to have balance and depth?
Either way, it's a rough spot that Pittsburgh is in and, in some way, it's a shame for them that they ever got Crosby.
Foresight
5.24.2008
No offense to real Pittsburgh fans but, wow, did it feel good to see the Pens get crushed tonight -- especially after enduring some endless bashing from cocky Pens fans. It's not a "vengeance now" thing. The Flyers didn't deserve to win their series against the Pens and I knew that going into the series. Still, when you hear Crosby, who knows he's mic'd up, insulting the Flyers by saying things like "This team has no depth," when Philadelphia has more 20 goal scorers than any other team in the league, you definitely want to see that cocky prick get taken down a notch.
I try to follow hockey as closely as I can. I read every article I see. I write about it. I follow message boards. The Pens fans that troll on other boards -- who were nowhere to be found a few years ago -- act like their team is infallible. I hate fair-weather fans, especially the ones who feel the need to shit on anyone who disagrees with them. So, I can only hope that this game/series shuts them up.
Ok, wow. I guess I needed to get that out. None of that has anything to do with my original intent of writing this blog. I checked TSN after the game to see if they had any articles up on the game and I saw this:

It looks like TSN is planning ahead.
As for foreshadowing, perhaps it most visible here:
I try to follow hockey as closely as I can. I read every article I see. I write about it. I follow message boards. The Pens fans that troll on other boards -- who were nowhere to be found a few years ago -- act like their team is infallible. I hate fair-weather fans, especially the ones who feel the need to shit on anyone who disagrees with them. So, I can only hope that this game/series shuts them up.
Ok, wow. I guess I needed to get that out. None of that has anything to do with my original intent of writing this blog. I checked TSN after the game to see if they had any articles up on the game and I saw this:

It looks like TSN is planning ahead.
As for foreshadowing, perhaps it most visible here:
New thoughts on next year's lineup
5.21.2008
Gagne - Richards - Briere
Knuble - Carter - Lupul
Hartnell - Umberger - Upshall
Thoresen - Downie - Giroux
Timonen - Coburn
Liles - Jones
Parent - Kukkonen
Biron
Niittymaki
It's likely that either Knuble or Umberger will be traded, unfortunately, because Hartnell should be the one to go. Umberger, of course, might just be signed to an offer sheet and the Flyers could collect draft picks in return for him. For now, though, I'm going to assume they're staying. I think, at this point, we'll part ways with Modry, Smith, Prospal, and Dowd. Hatcher and Kapanen may both retire. We'll figure out something to do with Cote but I doubt he'll be playing regularly. In the playoffs, I think the Flyers realized they don't need to waste a spot on an enforcer, especially one that doesn't produce any offense.
If Knuble or Umberger get traded, I would expect that we get a minimum of a solid, young puck moving d-man in return. The Flyers may also try to make a move on a player or two from the Penguins crop of free agents.
Whatever the case is, though Holmgren will be working hard over the summer, I wouldn't expect a big shakeup. One or two key moves, like signing Liles or maybe Ron Hainsey or Mark Streit, could really put thIs team closer to the next level. Our biggest cause for concern would still be goaltending. People keep talking about how Biron has stepped up his game. I think he's hit his limit and people are finally starting to accept that Niittymaki is a sieve. So, if we don't draft or sign a goalie or trade KnubleĀ or Hartnell (my hope is still that we make an aggressive move for Rask or go after Ellis), I would expect to see a trade midway through the season once the organization can properly gauge how well Parent, Giroux, and Downie are progressing, for a goalie and maybe even a defenseman.
The most significant move you'll notice in these lines is that the center issues have been resolved. Briere should be on the wing and Richards has rightfully earned a spot on the first line. A combo of Gagne - Richards - Briere will be downright scary. This will then bump Carter to the second line, where he belongs. With a winger upgrade from Upshall to Lupul, you'll see more dynamic and frequent production from this line. Finally, this opens up a spot for Umberger to move back into center, where he belongs. While the year may start off with Hartnell and Upshall flanking him on the wings, I would imagine it wouldn't be long before Downie or Giroux were moved up.
Knuble - Carter - Lupul
Hartnell - Umberger - Upshall
Thoresen - Downie - Giroux
Timonen - Coburn
Liles - Jones
Parent - Kukkonen
Biron
Niittymaki
It's likely that either Knuble or Umberger will be traded, unfortunately, because Hartnell should be the one to go. Umberger, of course, might just be signed to an offer sheet and the Flyers could collect draft picks in return for him. For now, though, I'm going to assume they're staying. I think, at this point, we'll part ways with Modry, Smith, Prospal, and Dowd. Hatcher and Kapanen may both retire. We'll figure out something to do with Cote but I doubt he'll be playing regularly. In the playoffs, I think the Flyers realized they don't need to waste a spot on an enforcer, especially one that doesn't produce any offense.
If Knuble or Umberger get traded, I would expect that we get a minimum of a solid, young puck moving d-man in return. The Flyers may also try to make a move on a player or two from the Penguins crop of free agents.
Whatever the case is, though Holmgren will be working hard over the summer, I wouldn't expect a big shakeup. One or two key moves, like signing Liles or maybe Ron Hainsey or Mark Streit, could really put thIs team closer to the next level. Our biggest cause for concern would still be goaltending. People keep talking about how Biron has stepped up his game. I think he's hit his limit and people are finally starting to accept that Niittymaki is a sieve. So, if we don't draft or sign a goalie or trade KnubleĀ or Hartnell (my hope is still that we make an aggressive move for Rask or go after Ellis), I would expect to see a trade midway through the season once the organization can properly gauge how well Parent, Giroux, and Downie are progressing, for a goalie and maybe even a defenseman.
The most significant move you'll notice in these lines is that the center issues have been resolved. Briere should be on the wing and Richards has rightfully earned a spot on the first line. A combo of Gagne - Richards - Briere will be downright scary. This will then bump Carter to the second line, where he belongs. With a winger upgrade from Upshall to Lupul, you'll see more dynamic and frequent production from this line. Finally, this opens up a spot for Umberger to move back into center, where he belongs. While the year may start off with Hartnell and Upshall flanking him on the wings, I would imagine it wouldn't be long before Downie or Giroux were moved up.
Say what
5.16.2008
I took the Superlatives quiz on Facebook and it presented me with this question:

How am I even supposed to answer that?

How am I even supposed to answer that?
Labels: random
Let's be honest
5.14.2008
Tomorrow may very well be the last day of the Flyers' season and I'm ok with that. The team had a good run and made it much further than I think just about anyone anticipated. Some people didn't think they'd make it into the playoffs and, outside of Philly journalists, a monkey and a dog were the only two to pick the Flyers to even beat the Capitals.
So thank you, Flyers, for a wonderful season. Aside from a 10-game losing streak that nearly gave me a stroke, this season was just what Philly needed to rebound from the devastation that was last year.
However, I want to be clear about one thing. If the Flyers do actually lose tomorrow, it won't be because of Crosby, Malkin, or Hossa. Their superstars did not overpower us. It won't be because of Biron's inexperience that we faltered. In truth, the loss of Timonen and Coburn really didn't hurt us that much. Look at the stats. The Flyers are not giving up all that many more goals than they did against Montreal or Washington.
Don't get me wrong, the loss of Timonen and Coburn did hinder the team. They were able to convert the opposition's miscues into offensive chances. They were also vital to the powerplay. The Flyers miss that. Still, there is a much larger and more pressing reason as to why the misnomered "Bullies" can't figure out the Pens.
It's simple: The Penguins have a better system that John Stevens could not match nor surpass. The team relied on the adversary of the new NHL, the neutral zone trap. It's a hockey roadblock that the Flyers could never seem to overcome. Also, in the defensive zone, all five players also collapsed in front of the net to prevent the Flyers from getting and high-quality scoring chances. Stevens seemed to recognize this as a major problem but I have yet to see any serious attempt to combat it.
Worst of all, Stevens seemed to do something incredibly counterintuitive that cost us two games. In order to get around the defensive play of the Pens, we would need strong play from our fast, finesse players. So, what did the coach do? He benched the player who arguably worked the hardest for the Flyers in the playoffs, Patrick Thoresen. Thoresen is an intelligent two-way player, has the puck seemingly glued to his stick, and is one of our faster skaters. In short, he is Sami Kapanen's protege.
He got benched. In his place skated Steve Downie, a physical player who has a tendency to take bad penalties and never proved that he could score or setup plays consistently. He is also quite a bit slower than Thoresen. In game three, his defensive gaff cost us the game-winning goal. In game four, his late offensive gaff cost us the goal that drained whatever semblance of hope the Flyers had for a comeback.
I'm not blaming Downie. He was doing his best. I blame Stevens for playing him and for not using his supposedly great hockey mind to come up with a plan that could finally result in consistent victories over the trap.
Some inspiring quotes:
So thank you, Flyers, for a wonderful season. Aside from a 10-game losing streak that nearly gave me a stroke, this season was just what Philly needed to rebound from the devastation that was last year.
However, I want to be clear about one thing. If the Flyers do actually lose tomorrow, it won't be because of Crosby, Malkin, or Hossa. Their superstars did not overpower us. It won't be because of Biron's inexperience that we faltered. In truth, the loss of Timonen and Coburn really didn't hurt us that much. Look at the stats. The Flyers are not giving up all that many more goals than they did against Montreal or Washington.
Don't get me wrong, the loss of Timonen and Coburn did hinder the team. They were able to convert the opposition's miscues into offensive chances. They were also vital to the powerplay. The Flyers miss that. Still, there is a much larger and more pressing reason as to why the misnomered "Bullies" can't figure out the Pens.
It's simple: The Penguins have a better system that John Stevens could not match nor surpass. The team relied on the adversary of the new NHL, the neutral zone trap. It's a hockey roadblock that the Flyers could never seem to overcome. Also, in the defensive zone, all five players also collapsed in front of the net to prevent the Flyers from getting and high-quality scoring chances. Stevens seemed to recognize this as a major problem but I have yet to see any serious attempt to combat it.
Worst of all, Stevens seemed to do something incredibly counterintuitive that cost us two games. In order to get around the defensive play of the Pens, we would need strong play from our fast, finesse players. So, what did the coach do? He benched the player who arguably worked the hardest for the Flyers in the playoffs, Patrick Thoresen. Thoresen is an intelligent two-way player, has the puck seemingly glued to his stick, and is one of our faster skaters. In short, he is Sami Kapanen's protege.
He got benched. In his place skated Steve Downie, a physical player who has a tendency to take bad penalties and never proved that he could score or setup plays consistently. He is also quite a bit slower than Thoresen. In game three, his defensive gaff cost us the game-winning goal. In game four, his late offensive gaff cost us the goal that drained whatever semblance of hope the Flyers had for a comeback.
I'm not blaming Downie. He was doing his best. I blame Stevens for playing him and for not using his supposedly great hockey mind to come up with a plan that could finally result in consistent victories over the trap.
Some inspiring quotes:
That is, every 33 years a team comes back from a 3-0 deficit to win a Stanley Cup series. The Toronto Maple Leafs did it in 1942. The New York Islanders did it in 1975. Now, it's 2008.
-Mark Spector, National Post
"There's four teams left in the league, and 26 other teams want to be in our position," Hartnell said. "We still have a chance, we still can win four in a row, but it starts with that first one."
-Scott Hartnell
Experiments with GarageBand pt. 1
5.12.2008
Here's what happens when you leave me alone with Garageband for an hour: I create crappy synth music. For example, take this song and loop.
Life Sans Liberation
Blahloop
For a J Lo sized buttload more music, go here.
Life Sans Liberation
Blahloop
For a J Lo sized buttload more music, go here.
Paternity leave recap
5.01.2008
The past month flew by so quickly. I loved being home with Liliana and I wish I could be home with her every day. A happy, healthy child can bring joy to the most dire situations when she smiles. For the most part, I was home a lot but I'll go over some thoughts from the past month.
- Not long into my leave, I was hit with a big reality check. We got into a car accident and Lily was in the back seat. She was fine and the accident was minor, for the most part, but it was the first situation where I felt like she was vulnerable to forces beyond my control. It's a sobering realization. Even when she had an infection at birth, I knew she was fine because of the doctor's assurance and all the care she got.
- I'm a city boy. Carrie's keen to the suburbs. Neither downtown nor Lower Merion seem like ideal places for us raise a child. My dad and step mom will be providing us with a ton of help and it makes sense if we live closer to them. Though expensive, Haddonfield is our best compromise. It's got a nice downtown, homes comparable to Lower Merion, it's only 10 minutes from downtown Philly, and about the same distance from my dad's house.
- A child who is barely three months is difficult to get out of the house. However, a child closer to four months can go in an umbrella stroller, naps less, and is generally more amiable when awake. That's when the fun baby times start.
- I am actually capable of waking up at 7:00 a.m.
- I know it's merely a status symbol but I'm obsessed with the Lexus line of SUVs. They handle so well, last forever, and are incredibly comfortable.
- Just because you're out of work, it doesn't mean you're able to get out any more. However, your friends might actually come visit you more often.
- Bob threw a very fun party and I'm glad I was able to attend. I am now very eager to resume poker nights.
- Recognizing that my 30th birthday is right around the corner, I set a goal for myself. I hope to be around 190lbs. by then. Sadly, I've let myself get way out of control and it's time to get back on track.
- In the tradition of Wired magazine, Wired: Colourlovers, Tired: Yelp, Expired: Myspace
- I am too superstitious to discuss Philly sports right now. More on that soon.
- Some paint, a few carefully placed decorative items, and a tile backsplash can really change the look of your place
- Not sure how to change covered recessed lights? Just pull down until the encasing falls out of the ceiling and replace the bulb.
- It's possible to spend $52 on a six pack, a few sodas, and some gummi frogs at the Foodery.
- Good shoes can really change the way you dress. I have wide but short feet and it's hard for me to find comfortable shoes. Right before I began paternity leave, I purchased a nice pair of brown shoes. Since then, I've begun dressing nicer and I'm more prone to reach for a button down shirt and dress socks than a t-shirt.
- Recently, I heard some tracks from Bush's "Sixteen Stone" for the first time in a decade plus. While I can recognize the lack of skill in the songwriting, some of the songs are still fun.
Labels: home
The Work Hustle
I returned to work today for the first time in a month. My paternity leaved passed as quickly as it began. I was sad that I had to leave my daughter and miss an opportunity to hang out with her. I apologized to her and she banged the top of her swing and smiled. I caught the bus in and, an hour later, I was at work.
When I arrived, it was nice to see my co-workers. We spent nearly forty minutes catching up. Finally, when I opened the door to my office, I saw the new decoration they left for me:

It's a disco ball the office cleaning lady, Rochelle, found in a dumpster. She found two but kept the larger disco ball for herself. I'm content with this one. I think it's more appropriately sized for my office. It's a permanent fixture, as far as I'm concerned.

When I arrived, it was nice to see my co-workers. We spent nearly forty minutes catching up. Finally, when I opened the door to my office, I saw the new decoration they left for me:

It's a disco ball the office cleaning lady, Rochelle, found in a dumpster. She found two but kept the larger disco ball for herself. I'm content with this one. I think it's more appropriately sized for my office. It's a permanent fixture, as far as I'm concerned.

Labels: work










