No need for much of an intro. This entry should be pretty self-explanatory.

• Carrie and Liliana
• Our families
• My job and coworkers
• Jeff Carter, Simon Gagne, Luca Sbisa
• Christian, Bob, Nicky
• Yos, Anne, Christine, Scott, and the rest of my iFriends
• World. Fucking. Champions.
• My new baby, an '08 Altima 3.5 SL
• Bill Meltzer and Tim Panaccio
• Septoplasty and prescription percocet
• Facebook and how it's reconnected me with friends and family
• NHL 09
• Moore Brothers and collecting wine
• 30 Rock
• Dexter
• PHP.net, David Walsh and Antonio Lupetti
• The Mars Rovers
• Banana Republic
• Outlet Stores
• Dr. Anil Rustgi
• Hangover Hockey League
• iPhone 3G and bluetooth connectivity
• The Baders, Deislers, and other friends with kids
• The Schulz, Richards, Baders and other families who have hooked us up a ton with baby stuff
• Sarah Palin and the economic crisis for ensuring an Obama victory
• Twitter
• Aaron Byles and all the wonderful work he's put into trying to sell our place

Vote for the NHL All Stars Here are my votes:

1. Blake Schwarzenbach has a new band
2. Lily is sitting up, standing while leaning, and I'm pretty sure she's crawling every time I turn away
3. The Flyers have actually gotten their season on track (3-0-1 in their last 4 games, 7-3-3 in their last 13)
4. I'm nearing the end of a tedious freelance project, have another project waiting in the wings, and the prospect of two more not far off
5. We went to the Marabella's reunion and had an absolute blast
6. We went to the cemetery this weekend. It's been way too long but it was incredibly nice to get to spend some time there and just think about my mom
7. I'm nearing the end of an incredibly long project at work. It'll be nice to start the next project
8. It may be the middle of November but the Phillies are still World. Fucking. Champions.
9. I just got a free cupcake
10. Lily has started sleeping until about 7:45
11. Carrie has a light schedule this week and I'll actually get to hang out with her
12. Finally, I think my Xbox will be back from repair

First, let me start off by saying that Lily and Carrie both got sick this week and I'm coming down with a cold too. So, that all sucked. I think the good outweighed the bad, though. Here's why the past seven days have been so good:

1. The Phillies won the NLDS.
2. I got to play hockey for the first time in about a year.
3. It's Danny's birthday!
4. Someone from Style.com (the same people who make Vogue Magazine) contacted me because they might feature The Brown Bag Club on their site.
5. We had three new showings on our house and came up with a good plan for all of our possible housing scenarios.
6. The house we love just dropped $10k in price, which puts it more comfortably in our budget... as long as someone actually buys our house.
7. I had a day off and got good rest.
8. I had my final dentist appointment and I no longer have a giant cavity in my molar. Also my teeth and gums are both really healthy for the first time in forever.
9. Luca Sbisa has impressed the hell out of everyone and may make the Flyers' roster.
10. I don't have to go into work this weekend anymore.
11. Lily slept until 8:00 a.m. the other day (albeit because she was sick -- but she's better now.)
12. I've made good progress on my concurrent freelance projects and am really happy with the way the designs are turning out.
13. I got ROTD at Yelp, even though I haven't been active on there in a few months.
14. I've been cooking all week and, in turn, eating and feeling better.
15. I got an awesome bottle of Polish vodka from Matt's trip to Poland
16. I got my allergy prescriptions refilled. So, maybe I can start breathing a little better again.
17. Even though I'm unable to attend the short story sharing thing -- Is there an official name yet? -- I have a story idea that I'm really excited about and can't wait to use next month.
18. I submitted feature requests for two apps I use (Coda and Doomi) and the developers liked my suggestions.
19. The NHL season started.
20. The Phillies beat the Dodgers in game 1 of the NLCS!
21. The reporter on Fox keeps calling all the highlights from the Phillies' game a "money shot."

Believe it or not, this is just the short list. Yay, good week! Now, please, someone just buy our place!

Braydon Coburn stars in a new NHL commercial on Versus.

Here's Joffrey Lupul from the Flyers at age 12 wearing a Red Sox hat. I couldn't get a clearer photo from this video.

We'll miss you, Sami Kapanen

I'm going to oversimplify situations here. Let's flashback to the 2005 NHL Entry Draft. What if the Anaheim Ducks had the first overall pick? Certainly, they would have selected Sidney Crosby, making the team far and away the league favorites for years to come.

But what would've happened to Pittsburgh? They selected Fleury in 2003. So, they probably would not have gone after Price. Would they have selected Bobby Ryan? Maybe. Maybe not. I think they would've taken Jack Johnson. They could've used help on d and their second pick in that draft was a d-man. It wouldn't have thrown off the rest of the draft too much though. The only way I see this turning out differently is if the Penguins had the foresight to dig a little deeper and draft Kopitar at center.

Anyway, how much would that have sucked for the Penguins? Not as much as at initial glance. Sure, not getting Crosby would've been an immediate setback to them and the NHL would pour their focus on the Ducks and not the Pens. Plus, the Flyers might be in the Stanley Cup right now had that happened. So, those things would've been harsh.

But what good would've come of it? Let's assume they chose Johnson. This year, he's making $0.85 mil. He's an RFA next year but only has 79 games at the NHL level under his belt. So, he's probably due for a decent raise but nothing in the realm of Crosby. Maybe he'll get a nice short term contract to see how he continues to develop, something like 3 years, $2.5 mil. That's $6.5 mil under what Crosby's making.

Johnson's presence and potential would allow the Pens to cut ties with a high priced vet, like Sydor or Gill, cutting an extra $2.1-$2.5 mil out of their budget. Now, you have about $9 mil more a year to work with.

The Pens have something like 20 UFAs and RFAs after this season and 11 after the following. That's insane, especially when you consider that Malkin and Fleury are among those ranks. Without Crosby, the Pens would've been more proactive about signing Malkin to a long-term deal and could've gotten him at a cheaper price. Now, he'll go for league maximum.

All of that extra money, plus the Pens extra cap space, would've allowed them to bring back all of their key players and, if necessary, maybe even have room for an affordable free agent with high potential, if necessary.

Instead, the Penguins will find themselves tight up against the cap in the next few years, and they'll be forced to make a tough decision: (I'm borrowing this description but I forget where I read it so I don't have a reference, sorry) Do they go the Tampa Bay route and spend most of their salary on a few key players or do they cut ties with the top guys in order to have balance and depth?

Either way, it's a rough spot that Pittsburgh is in and, in some way, it's a shame for them that they ever got Crosby.

...and a little extra. However, it is missing the dive against the Rangers that cost them the series. Also, I wish I could find video with audio of Jagr and Richards both hollering at Crosby for diving.



Pussy as art.

No offense to real Pittsburgh fans but, wow, did it feel good to see the Pens get crushed tonight -- especially after enduring some endless bashing from cocky Pens fans. It's not a "vengeance now" thing. The Flyers didn't deserve to win their series against the Pens and I knew that going into the series. Still, when you hear Crosby, who knows he's mic'd up, insulting the Flyers by saying things like "This team has no depth," when Philadelphia has more 20 goal scorers than any other team in the league, you definitely want to see that cocky prick get taken down a notch.

I try to follow hockey as closely as I can. I read every article I see. I write about it. I follow message boards. The Pens fans that troll on other boards -- who were nowhere to be found a few years ago -- act like their team is infallible. I hate fair-weather fans, especially the ones who feel the need to shit on anyone who disagrees with them. So, I can only hope that this game/series shuts them up.

Ok, wow. I guess I needed to get that out. None of that has anything to do with my original intent of writing this blog. I checked TSN after the game to see if they had any articles up on the game and I saw this:



It looks like TSN is planning ahead.

As for foreshadowing, perhaps it most visible here:

Here's a random comment I found on Crosby's playoff moustache:

"It's like a happy trail under his nose."

Gagne - Richards - Briere
Knuble - Carter - Lupul
Hartnell - Umberger - Upshall
Thoresen - Downie - Giroux

Timonen - Coburn
Liles - Jones
Parent - Kukkonen

Biron
Niittymaki

It's likely that either Knuble or Umberger will be traded, unfortunately, because Hartnell should be the one to go. Umberger, of course, might just be signed to an offer sheet and the Flyers could collect draft picks in return for him. For now, though, I'm going to assume they're staying. I think, at this point, we'll part ways with Modry, Smith, Prospal, and Dowd. Hatcher and Kapanen may both retire. We'll figure out something to do with Cote but I doubt he'll be playing regularly. In the playoffs, I think the Flyers realized they don't need to waste a spot on an enforcer, especially one that doesn't produce any offense.

If Knuble or Umberger get traded, I would expect that we get a minimum of a solid, young puck moving d-man in return. The Flyers may also try to make a move on a player or two from the Penguins crop of free agents.

Whatever the case is, though Holmgren will be working hard over the summer, I wouldn't expect a big shakeup. One or two key moves, like signing Liles or maybe Ron Hainsey or Mark Streit, could really put thIs team closer to the next level. Our biggest cause for concern would still be goaltending. People keep talking about how Biron has stepped up his game. I think he's hit his limit and people are finally starting to accept that Niittymaki is a sieve. So, if we don't draft or sign a goalie or trade Knuble or Hartnell (my hope is still that we make an aggressive move for Rask or go after Ellis), I would expect to see a trade midway through the season once the organization can properly gauge how well Parent, Giroux, and Downie are progressing, for a goalie and maybe even a defenseman.

The most significant move you'll notice in these lines is that the center issues have been resolved. Briere should be on the wing and Richards has rightfully earned a spot on the first line. A combo of Gagne - Richards - Briere will be downright scary. This will then bump Carter to the second line, where he belongs. With a winger upgrade from Upshall to Lupul, you'll see more dynamic and frequent production from this line. Finally, this opens up a spot for Umberger to move back into center, where he belongs. While the year may start off with Hartnell and Upshall flanking him on the wings, I would imagine it wouldn't be long before Downie or Giroux were moved up.

Congrats to the Flyers for living to see another day. More importantly, I would like to celebrate a quote from Flyers Post Game Live:

"Aside from Crosby's mustache, I have no gripe with him in the playoffs. That thing is pretty weak."
-Al Morganti

Tomorrow may very well be the last day of the Flyers' season and I'm ok with that. The team had a good run and made it much further than I think just about anyone anticipated. Some people didn't think they'd make it into the playoffs and, outside of Philly journalists, a monkey and a dog were the only two to pick the Flyers to even beat the Capitals.

So thank you, Flyers, for a wonderful season. Aside from a 10-game losing streak that nearly gave me a stroke, this season was just what Philly needed to rebound from the devastation that was last year.

However, I want to be clear about one thing. If the Flyers do actually lose tomorrow, it won't be because of Crosby, Malkin, or Hossa. Their superstars did not overpower us. It won't be because of Biron's inexperience that we faltered. In truth, the loss of Timonen and Coburn really didn't hurt us that much. Look at the stats. The Flyers are not giving up all that many more goals than they did against Montreal or Washington.

Don't get me wrong, the loss of Timonen and Coburn did hinder the team. They were able to convert the opposition's miscues into offensive chances. They were also vital to the powerplay. The Flyers miss that. Still, there is a much larger and more pressing reason as to why the misnomered "Bullies" can't figure out the Pens.

It's simple: The Penguins have a better system that John Stevens could not match nor surpass. The team relied on the adversary of the new NHL, the neutral zone trap. It's a hockey roadblock that the Flyers could never seem to overcome. Also, in the defensive zone, all five players also collapsed in front of the net to prevent the Flyers from getting and high-quality scoring chances. Stevens seemed to recognize this as a major problem but I have yet to see any serious attempt to combat it.

Worst of all, Stevens seemed to do something incredibly counterintuitive that cost us two games. In order to get around the defensive play of the Pens, we would need strong play from our fast, finesse players. So, what did the coach do? He benched the player who arguably worked the hardest for the Flyers in the playoffs, Patrick Thoresen. Thoresen is an intelligent two-way player, has the puck seemingly glued to his stick, and is one of our faster skaters. In short, he is Sami Kapanen's protege.

He got benched. In his place skated Steve Downie, a physical player who has a tendency to take bad penalties and never proved that he could score or setup plays consistently. He is also quite a bit slower than Thoresen. In game three, his defensive gaff cost us the game-winning goal. In game four, his late offensive gaff cost us the goal that drained whatever semblance of hope the Flyers had for a comeback.

I'm not blaming Downie. He was doing his best. I blame Stevens for playing him and for not using his supposedly great hockey mind to come up with a plan that could finally result in consistent victories over the trap.

Some inspiring quotes:

That is, every 33 years a team comes back from a 3-0 deficit to win a Stanley Cup series. The Toronto Maple Leafs did it in 1942. The New York Islanders did it in 1975. Now, it's 2008.

-Mark Spector, National Post

"There's four teams left in the league, and 26 other teams want to be in our position," Hartnell said. "We still have a chance, we still can win four in a row, but it starts with that first one."

-Scott Hartnell

I'm going to bask in this for a minute and begin worrying about the next series tomorrow.

If I was in charge of the Flyers, here's what my lineup would look like over the next two seasons.

08/09
Gagne - Briere - Lupul
Hartnell - Richards - Umberger
Upshall - Carter - Downie/Thoresen
Greentree- Roenick - Kapanen

Timonen - Coburn
Liles - Hatcher/Staal
Kukkonen - Parent

Biron
Rask

Significant off-season moves:

• Re-sign Jeff Carter ($4.5, 5 yr), R.J. Umberger ($2, 3 yr) and Patrick Thoresen ($.7, 2 yr)
• Sign Jeremy Roenick ($0.5, 1 yr)
• Trade Dennis Tolpeko, the negotiating rights for Randy Jones, and a pick for negotiating rights to John-Michael Liles ($3, 2 yr)
• Trade Antero Niittymaki, Mike Knuble, and Stefan Ruzicka to Boston for Tuukka Rask
• Trade Downie and maybe a pick to the Rangers for Marc Staal before the trade deadline
• Rathje finally retires
• Alternate option: The Penguins have a ton of UFAs this off season. The Flyers might have some interest in Ryan Malone

09/10
Gagne - Briere - Lupul
vanRiemsdyk - Richards - Giroux
Upshall - Carter - Thoresen
Greentree - Potulny - Nodl

Liles - Coburn
Timonen - Parent
Kukkonen - Staal

Rask
Biron

Significant off-season moves:

• Re-sign Joffrey Lupul ($4, 3yr), Martin Biron ($2.2, 2yr), Greentree ($1, 2yr) and Lasse Kukkonen ($1.2, 3yr)
• Sami Kapanen, Jeremy Roenick and Derian Hatcher retire
• Alternate option: With the loss of Kapanen, Roenick, and Hatcher, that entire wave of vets will be gone. It might be worth approaching a fully seasoned vet to provide a little extra leadership in the locker room for a year

Admittedly, I didn't do the math for the 09/10 season but I don't know what the cap will be. I assume it'll be around $60, though.

Now that the first round of the playoffs is over, let's check in on my predictions and see how they panned out.

1. Anaheim
WHAT I SAID: "This team is just sick and with the late-season additions of Niedermayer and Selanne, they've got a lot of extra boost for the playoffs."

WHAT HAPPENED: Dallas crushed them in six games. So much for that.

2. Montreal
WHAT I SAID: "If Carey Price can hold up, this team will remain hot through the post-season and give any Eastern Conference team a difficult challenge."

WHAT HAPPENED: Their goaltending did pull through, though Price was shaky at the end. Boston took them to the brink before finally being eliminated by Montreal in game 7.

NEW PREDICTION: The Habs will beat the Flyers in 5 games. The only way Philadelphia stands a chance is if Price is still shaky, and the likes of Kovalev and Koivu are hindered by injuries.

3. Detroit
WHAT I SAID: "[The key to their success is] goaltending. Osgood had an unbelievably good start to his season. Then, he signed a new contract and forgot how to stop a puck from going into the net much like Beavis and Butt-head forgot how to pee."

WHAT HAPPENED: Nashville gave them a little scare and Hasek sat the bench for the last few games. Osgood showed up and played incredibly well for this offensive and defensive powerhouse.

NEW PREDICTION: The Avalanche should be no match for the Red Wings. Theodore could not possibly hold up in net against them. The only way the Avs stand a chance is if their offense can pile up the shots on net, a task that is easier said than done against this team. If they don't, I predict a Detroit sweep.

4. Calgary
WHAT I SAID: "Everyone forgets about the Flames because they're just not a sexy team at all. There's no allure. It's time for them to step up and make the rest of the league recognize."

WHAT HAPPENED: The Flames did make everyone take notice of them by forcing a game seven in San Jose but they were overpowered by Jeremy Roenick's four point display and sent packing for the golf course.

5. New Jersey
WHAT I SAID: "Aside from Brodeur this team has, umm, nobody and nobody. Ovechkin will probably score more goals than their leading point-getter will tally for goals and assists."

WHAT HAPPENED: The Rangers crushed the Devils in five games and Brodeur was weak at points. In five games, the Devils scored 12 goals. Elias lead the team with six points. However, Ovechkin only had four goals but he finished the series with nine overall points, a number lower than expected on account of the brilliant defensive work of Kimmo Timonen.

6. Dallas
WHAT I SAID: "Mike Ribeiro [is the key to their success]. He's been phenomenal this year and, as long as he doesn't collapse in the post-season, this team will have a good shot at the Cup."

WHAT HAPPENED: Ribeiro lead both the Stars and the Ducks with eight points, only two of which were goals but the real star turned out to be Marty Turco, who played brilliantly throughout this series, posting a 2.01 GAA and a .912 PCT.

NEW PREDICTION: Vezina candidate, Evgeni Nabokov may be the best backstop left in the West. As obvious as it sounds, the Stars ability to put pucks behind him will determine whether or not they win. If Richards, Modano, Ribeiro, et al. can post some pretty good numbers, Dallas will advance. If my math is correct, Dallas is 4-2-2 against the Sharks this year.

7. Pittsburgh
WHAT I SAID: "What's to prevent them from winning a Cup? I don't think they're ready yet. Mentally, I don't think they'll be able to pull it together and I think any team that plays Pittsburgh will crush Crosby."

WHAT HAPPENED: Some people will say that Pittsburgh threw the final game of the regular season in order to face the deflated Ottawa in the first round, instead of Philadelphia. Ottawa had long since fallen apart and this series was a cakewalk for the Pens.

NEW PREDICTION: The Rangers will be the Pens first real opponent in the playoffs. Expect Avery to get in Fleury's face and lots of physical play against Crosby, Malkin, and Hossa. Getting by the Rangers will be a bigger challenge than Pittsburgh anticipates. New York is getting balanced scoring, good veteran leadership, and stellar goaltending. This may be the most evenly matched series in the second round of the playoffs. If the series goes seven, expect the Rangers to come out with their heads up high or the Penguins to be limping off the ice.

8. Minnesota
WHAT I SAID: "The likes of Boogard and Belanger have to come back healthy soon and kick some ass and take some names."

WHAT HAPPENED: It was a fun series but, in the end, the Avalanche dominated the injury-depleted Wild.

9. Ottawa
WHAT I SAID: "Their first line [is the key to their success]. They need to out-produce any and all opponents."

WHAT HAPPENED: The Senators were plagued with injuries and they had no idea what hit them. Pittsburgh crushed them in four.

10. Washington
WHAT I SAID: "This team is 10th in the East and has to catapult over two teams just to make it into the playoffs. Don't count them out just yet, though. Ovechkin is impossibly good, Semin is finally healthy, and Backstrom is firing on all cylinders. Huet was a key pickup at the deadline to provide the Caps with some much needed solid netminding."

WHAT HAPPENED: Not only did the Capitals make it into the playoffs, but they won their division and finished in third. They took Philadelphia the distance. It was clear that the Caps were hungrier in this series but the Flyers barely snuck by in OT of Game 7. However, had the Flyers not gotten sloppy in the third period of game one, they would've swept the Caps.

CORRECT: 4 teams (Montreal, Detroit, Dallas, Pittsburgh)
EAST: Montreal vs. NY Rangers
WEST: Detroit vs. Dallas
CUP: Montreal beats Detroit in six

People are so biased against Philadelphia that they suggest the Flyers are even hurting their own players. Here's a quote from the Edmonton Journal:

Timonen, who's been on the ice almost every time Ovechkin climbed over the boards, crashed into the Caps' net late in the second period when he was rudely shoved from behind by Flyers forward Brooks Laich as the blue-liner went to the net. He appeared to injure his right shoulder or arm.

Nice try, Jim Matheson, but Laich is a Capital.

It amazes me how little sports journalists seem to know about hockey. Worst of all is the bandwagon Capitals fans who couldn't give two shits about hockey until the playoffs started. It's kind of ridiculous but, hey, I guess it's good for the game, right? I don't know. I just don't know anymore.

While nobody thinks the Flyers are going to win this playoff series versus the Capitals, it's generally agreed upon that the Flyers do stand a chance. But what do they need to do to win?

I won't bother going over a matchup. Every hockey site in the world has done the general run down. I'll just give you the general synopsis.

The Flyers have a better third and fourth offensive lines than the Caps. Biron and Huet have both been solid down the stretch in net but Huet is the better goalie. The biggest weakness in the matchup is the Flyers defense. Aside from Timonen and Coburn, the Flyers' d-men are either slow or flawed. Some are both.

In order to beat the Caps, they need to patch that up. Three easy moves will solve that problem.

1. Call up Denis Gauthier. Since it's the playoffs, he won't go through waivers and there is money under the cap now to afford the move. He's faster than Smith and Hatcher and can check like just about nobody else in the league. He'll put the fear of God into the young Capitals players and have an impact on Ovechkin.

2. Put Kapanen back on the blue line. I love Kaps but he's a non-factor on offense this year. He only has 8 points all season. His speed and finesse will solve some major problems we have on defense. There are plenty of other players that can fill his spot easily.

3. Rotate 7 men on defense and roll three lines up front. Hatcher and Smith are ailing. Jones, Modry, and Kukkonen can be liabilities. Gauthier can fill in nicely for Hatcher, Smith, or Modry. Kapenen can fill in easily for Jones, Modry, or Kukkonen. So, scratch either Hatcher or Smith and either Jones, or Kukkonen. Play the rest of them in spurts and in specific situations. It'll give the Flyers more depth than anyone is anticipating they'd have in their own zone.

If there's an injury or a problem, Kapanen can always be moved back to offense. In the meantime, he's better suited on D.

For the record, I'm not writing all these blogs at once. Since my old host began sucking ass, I have been unable to post any new blogs since before Easter.

I really like the Phoenix Coyotes. They've got a really good, young team that I think is going to surprise a lot of people in upcoming years. For the hockey households out there, expect names like Peter Mueller, Kyle Turris, Enver Lisin, Martin Hanzal, Keith Ballard, and Keith Yandle to become much more common in a few years.

In addition, Dan Carcillo is quickly developing into one of the sickest fighters in the league, and Ilja Bryzgalov is an underrated goalie and Al Montoya will quickly develop into a solid goalie in a 1a and 1b starter situation. I also very much like the combination of Wayne Gretzky and Rick Tocchet behind the bench. The Great One brings all the hockey intelligence you could ask for and Tocchet brings the fire to be lit under the players' asses. They compliment each other very well.

The Coyotes are a fun team to watch and I enjoy their style of play. It's a bit more informal and much less routine than the Flyers. It's refreshing to watch and I hope Philly can take a cue from this desert team.

This season isn't over yet but I'm already going to guarantee that the Coyotes make the playoffs next year.

In related news, I had a very happy moment this morning as I contemplated how the Pens clinched the Atlantic and the Flyers will probably miss the playoffs again. I realized that the Penguins are totally screwed. They will have 20 free agents at the end of this year, including two of their goalies: Conklin and Fleury. New acquisition, Hossa, will also be a UFA, so will Ryan Malone. Toss in the fact that Crosby's hefty raise kicks in next year, and the team has very little money to re-sign anyone. Hossa will almost definitely be gone. My guess is that you'll see Malkin get traded. He'll be a RFA the next year. I just can't see how they'll afford him. All of their money will be spent tying up players in this offseason. If he's not traded, they might just see if he gets signed to an offer sheet elsewhere, but that can be risky.

The Phlly fan in me wants to see Malkin in orange and black. The hockey fan in me wants to see him in Washington, playing with Ovechkin. Either way, I think I'll be happy because that would mean he's not in Pittsburgh.

Ok, screw this. I need to make some changes to this list.

The first four teams stay the same. I skipped team five. So, bump teams 6-8 up a spot. The ten spot remains the same. That leaves spots 8 and 9.

1. Anaheim
Mostly everything I said before stays the same.

KEY TO THEIR SUCCESS: Corey Perry. His absence leaves a mark on the team but he is slated to come back right around the beginning of the playoffs. Expect him to continue his banner year if and when he returns.

8. Minnesota
They're tough. They're fun. They're making folks in Minnesota love hockey once again. I'd love to see the Wild win as a dark horse team. Koivu and Rolston are very underrated. I'd also love to see Kim Johnsson prove that Philly should have never let him go. Their goaltending is iffy, though.

KEY TO THEIR SUCCESS: The likes of Boogard and Belanger have to come back healthy soon and kick some ass and take some names.

9. Ottawa
My guess is, if Gerber knows the job is his, he'll keep playing like a good #1 goalie.

KEY TO THEIR SUCCESS: Their first line. They need to out-produce any and all opponents.

Notable Neglects

Philadelphia
This team plays with the urgency of Donovan McNabb in the Superbowl. They're a dead fish. After leading 3-0 against Toronto last night, they gave up 3 goals in the third period and lost in overtime. Again, they dropped a game to the Maple Leafs tonight. Biron has been decent but nobody else has any heart, and I think that stems from the stoic coach, John Stevens, who can't get his team fired up or coach them out of a box. I'm sorry but you should never see the following defensive pairings: Hatcher and Jones, Hatcher and Modry, or Hatcher and Smith. He's played all three at points and the former two pairs were on the ice together tonight.

He favors his Phantoms players to a fault and he keeps messing with chemistry. Upshall and Carter have been amazing together and he moved Upshall to another line. Umberger provided much needed defensive support for Briere and Prospal but he was replaced with a rusty Lupul. Stevens has to go and, if they fail to make the post-season this year, he absolutely will be canned.

Colorado
This team is plagued with too many injuries. After Sakic and Stastny returned, they lost Svatos for the season, who is their leading goal scorer, and Forsberg went down to injury after only two games with the team. I'd like to see the Avs win it but I think they're too fragile right now.

Carolina and Vancouver
Yeah, right.

I promise not to write about hockey often on this blog but I'd like to put up my list of most likely Stanley Cup winners for this year. These are my top 10 favorites.

1. Anaheim
This team is just sick and with the late-season additions of Niedermayer and Selanne, they've got a lot of extra boost for the playoffs.

KEY TO THEIR SUCCESS: Health. This team discarded Bryzgalov like old milk and that might come back to haunt them if Giguere has any health issues in the post-season.

2. Montreal
If Carey Price can hold up, this team will remain hot through the post-season and give any Eastern Conference team a difficult challenge. Montreal is a proud, snobby French Canadien team and they might pull out all the stops to win a cup just to stick it in Danny Briere's face for not signing there.

KEY TO THEIR SUCCESS: Goaltending. Price is a franchise goalie but the Habs may have given up too early on Huet. It's sink or swim time and I think Price will float effortlessly.

3. Detroit
These guys are perennial post-season underachievers but they've got all the makings of Cup winners, not to mention the fact that they've been the best team in the league all season. Everyone should be back off of IR just in time to bolster their lineup for a push through the playoffs.

KEY TO THEIR SUCCESS: Goaltending. Osgood had an unbelievably good start to his season. Then, he signed a new contract and forgot how to stop a puck from going into the net much like Beavis and Butt-head forgot how to pee.

4. Calgary
I may be one of the last people to believe that Mike Keenan is a worthwhile coach. The Flames have made it oh-so-close in recent years and Keenan's aggressiveness might be just the edge that they need to will themselves to play high enough above their abilities to surpass any other Western Conference team. Kiprusoff has finally earned a few shutouts and Iginla is having another stellar but unrecognized year. Everyone forgets about the Flames because they're just not a sexy team at all. There's no allure. It's time for them to step up and make the rest of the league recognize.

KEY TO THEIR SUCCESS: Huselius, Langkow, and Nolan. Huselius and Langkow need to step up their production in the next month and Nolan can hopefully provide the locker room leadership to guide this team's hunger for their first Cup in almost 20 years.

6. New Jersey
Aside from Brodeur this team has, umm, nobody and nobody. Ovechkin will probably score more goals than their leading point-getter will tally for goals and assists. All it will take to destroy this team will be one cheap hit by a flying Scott Hartnell into the crease. Brodeur goes down and, boom, this team will never win another game again. Do I condone that, no? I'm just saying there's a huge flaw in their game plan and, sooner or later, someone will be desperate enough to exploit it. Or, Marty will just retire and let the rest of the Atlantic Division breathe a much needed sigh of relief.

KEY TO THEIR SUCCESS: Brodeur, Brodeur, Brodeur. They've got nothing else to go on.

7. Dallas
This team has only won one game in March so far but they only lost two in all of February. They're solid and now they've got Brad Richards to boot. Losing Mike Smith will hurt them in the long run but, for now, they'll ride the Richards gravy train for as long as they can. That means a much better powerplay and more overall goal scoring.

KEY TO THEIR SUCCESS: Mike Ribeiro. He's been phenomenal this year and, as long as he doesn't collapse in the post-season, this team will have a good shot at the Cup.

8. Pittsburgh
I'm crazy, right? This team has Crosby, Malkin, Hossa, et al. What's to prevent them from winning a Cup? I don't think they're ready yet. Mentally, I don't think they'll be able to pull it together and I think any team that plays Pittsburgh will crush Crosby. Hossa hasn't played a game for Pittsburgh yet and he'll only get a handful in before the playoffs. At such a critical juncture, throwing such a big piece into the puzzle may only throw off the team's chemistry. They might be a step behind and still trying to get it together when the playoffs start.

KEY TO THEIR SUCCESS: Malkin has to continue scoring at the torrid pace he was in February.

9. Philadelphia
I know, they've struggled but there are three key factors to look at here: 1. The absence of Mike Richards has forced Jeff Carter's growth to turn a corner and, since he's entering a contract year, he's got a lot to prove. 2. The Flyers are getting Mike Richards, Joffrey Lupul, and Derian Hatcher back in the nick of time. They'll be healthy, well rested, and ready to add a ton of firepower and defensive power to this lineup. 3. Vaclav Prospal has been the perfect fit for Briere. He's got his season back on track and the two are quickly becoming an unstoppable offensive juggernaut.

KEY TO THEIR SUCCESS: Goaltending stability. Biron has lost his confidence since having a short stint as Niittymaki's second fiddle. If he can get back into the grove he was in at the beginning of the season, nobody may be able to stop this team.

10. Washington
You must be thinking I've completely lost it. This team is 10th in the East and has to catapult over two teams just to make it into the playoffs. Don't count them out just yet, though. Ovechkin is impossibly good, Semin is finally healthy, and Backstrom is firing on all cylinders. Huet was a key pickup at the deadline to provide the Caps with some much needed solid netminding. Also, it's possible -- though not probable -- that Nylander could return for the playoffs, giving Washington some depth. I wouldn't count on seeing Nylander but I think the Caps are my favorite dark horse team this year.

KEY TO THEIR SUCCESS: Ovechkin and Huet have a lot of weight they'll be carrying on their shoulders. If they can manage the load, who knows what will happen?

Notable Neglects
San Jose
I just don't think the Brians (Campbell and Boucher) will be the missing pieces to the puzzle for them. They've had a good year, considering how poorly Marleau and Cheechoo have played for most of the season and the only way they stand a chance is if these guys put this year behind them and start playing like they want to earn their paycheck.

Ottawa
Everyone will tell you that Ray Emery is a cancer. He hurts the team. He has already lost his short-lived job as the #1 goalie for the team. Gerber is playing better again but the team around him isn't.

New York Rangers
The Yankees try to hire all the talent in the world and it doesn't work for them. Why would it work for the Rangers? You'll hear me say the same thing again in mid-September about the Mets.

Boston
Tim Thomas imploded and everyone's scrambling for answers on that team. They're heading in the wrong direction. While they're busy losing, there are plenty of anxious teams behind them, willing to take their spot in the Conference. I would not be surprised at all to see Washington take the #8 spot and Boston lose out on a playoff berth all together.

I can't take this stretch of play from the Flyers anymore. They've been getting injured. They come out slow. The defense is weak. At the end of the game, they're down by two, pull the goalie, come to life and score. WIth 20 seconds left in the game, they're finally playing like they should have all game. Then, it ends. As of a minute ago, that's four straight losses.

What do the Flyers need to do to hit the ice in stride and play a full 60 minutes of hockey? Though I'm very happy with the team progress overall, I think it's starting to crumble under its own weight. Really, what I think I need is something else to help me relieve stress.

There are a few things in my life that serve as a release: playing in a band, playing guitar, playing hockey, watching the Flyers and Phillies. Carrie is wonderful. She understands that I need these things in my life and is willing to make sure that I have some time for such activities. I'm very thankful for this.

Still, I am limited in what I can do. A band is out of the question. I can't really play guitar with a baby around. I play hockey when I can but I'm dependent on about 11 other people for this to happen so I'm lucky if it occurs once a month. That leaves me with watching the Flyers and Phillies. Well, just the Flyers for now.

I get to watch about 60 games a year and I'm very appreciative of that. However, my mood is largely dependent on how the team plays. If they win, I can let anything slide off my back. When they lose, my stress level doubles. After losing four in a row, I'm ready to explode.

I guess I could go back to playing NHL on the Xbox. I don't know, though. That would probably be pushing it. I don't think I should be playing video games because it would require Carrie to focus on taking care of the baby. So, the only real solution I see is that the Flyers need to start winning again